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Weekly Market Update – 9.30.2024

Last week, the S&P 500 posted record highs and gained 0.64%. Personal Consumption Expenditures(PCE) for August rose 2.2% from one year ago. With PCE being the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, there is currently a 100% probability of at least a 0.25% rate cut on November 7.  I was recently asked how stocks can set record highs in the face of political uncertainty and wars. In short, the Fed has more influence over the current US economy than elections and ...
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Weekly Market Update – 9.23.2024

Last week, the Fed made a big move by cutting the policy rate by 0.50%. The Federal Open Market Committee’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections showed decreases in expected inflation and policy rate and an increase in unemployment compared to their June projection. Stocks rallied on the news, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.39%. This week, stocks look to post a monthly gain in September for the first time since 2019. Friday, the Personal Consumption ...
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Weekly Market Update – 9.16.2024

Stocks bounced back, with the S&P 500 gaining 4.06% and the Tech Heavy NASDAQ gaining 5.98% for the week. Bonds also added value as rates decreased in anticipation of a Fed cut. The aggregate bond index (AGG) gained 5.68% for the year through Friday. Bonds are on pace for their first positive calendar year of returns since 2020.   This week’s focus is on the Fed, as a 0.50% rate cut seems appropriate. The probability of the FOMC cutting the Federal Funds Rate by ...
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Weekly Market Update – 9.3.2024

The S&P 500 posted gains for the third consecutive week, helped by positive GDP revisions and tamed inflation(PCE). Nvidia(NVDA) beat earnings estimates but experienced margin contraction partly due to production issues with its next-generation Blackwell chips. Thursday, NVDA shares declined 6.4%, highlighting that high expectations for future profits leave little margin for error.  Today, ISM’s purchasing manager’s index(PMI) for August came in ...
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Weekly Market Update – 8.5.2024

Stocks finished last week in the red, with the S&P 500 declining 2.05%. The Fed held rates steady as expected and signaled that rate cuts are in the cards at their September meeting. With the recent market volatility, lower-than-expected hiring for June, and the unemployment rate at 4.3%, the probability of a 0.50% rate cut at their September meeting currently stands at 84%. June’s job numbers disappointed expectations, but hiring has reached average pre-pandemic levels, and the ...
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Weekly Market Update – 7.22.2024

Stocks started in rally mode last week, with the S&P 500 and Dow setting record highs. However, the S&P 500 and tech stocks retreated on concerns about future tariffs and export restrictions to China. Money rotated out of the Magnificent 7 into small-cap and defensive stocks.  CrowdStrike, a large cybersecurity company, applied a software update Friday morning while most of us slept. The update caused outages for Microsoft Windows users, wreaking havoc on large airlines, ...
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Weekly Market Update – 7.8.2024

Following the July 4th holiday, the Employment Report indicated a strong but cooling labor market. After the report, the probability of a 0.25% rate cut in September increased to 75%. The prospects of lower interest rates pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to close at all-time highs, up 17.57% and 22.73% YTD, respectively. This week, Delta (DAL), Pepsi (PEP), and big banks JP Morgan (JPM), Citi (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) kick off the second quarter corporate earnings season. The S&P ...
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Weekly Market Update – 6.17.2024

The major stock indices ended last week mixed, and bonds rallied. The S&P 500 and US Aggregate Bond Index gained 1.62% and 1.31%, respectively, while the Dow Jones 30 declined 0.95%. May’s headline Consumer Price Index(CPI) was flat from the previous month and up 3.3% from one year ago. The cooler CPI print drove longer-dated treasury yield down by approximately 20 basis points. We could expect mortgage rates to follow suit soon. This week is abbreviated as the ...
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Weekly Market Update – 5.13.2024

Last week, stocks posted gains, with the S&P 500 approaching a record high and bond yields remaining relatively unchanged. Good corporate earnings and signs of a softening labor market contributed to stock gains. Inflation is back in focus this week, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report coming out on Wednesday. The market expects April’s CPI to decrease from the previous month. Happy belated Mother’s Day to all the moms out there! Here’s to a great week ...
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Weekly Market Update – 2.26.2024

Last week, Nvidia (NVDA) posted record profits, contributing to its stock and the broader stock market achieving record highs on Friday. The S&P 500 gained 1.68% for the week and 6.91% year-to-date. Far from being hype, Artificial Intelligence (AI) is poised to revolutionize business and our daily lives. By enhancing efficiency and productivity, AI technology promises transformative changes across industries. While optimism around AI remains high, mitigating AI technology risks is ...
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